2
Mephisto
9yo Gelding · 11-11 · OR 109
Roscommon · DNG Ivan Connaughton Handicap Hurdle · 2m 7f 210y
#17
Rank
Odds
28/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#17
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 6.5 /10 (raw 5.8)
Highest class: BHA47
Recent avg: C8.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | Galway | BHA110 | 15th | 15th | 0 |
| 2026-07-14 | Downpatrick | BHA111 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Bellewstown | BHA110 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-07 | Navan | BHA51 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-29 | Down Royal | BHA49 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-10 | Dundalk | BHA57 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish17th of 18
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength18%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 17th of 18.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/08/2025 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 15/08/2025 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 12/09/2025 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 43% | -0.26 |
| 10/04/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 73% | +0.73 |
| 29/05/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 85% | +0.02 |
| 07/06/2026 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 62% | -0.15 |
| 04/07/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 79% | +0.63 |
| 14/07/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 29/07/2026 | 15th | 28/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |