11
Mr Dibbs
7yo Gelding · 11-4 · OR 102
Roscommon · DNG Ivan Connaughton Handicap Hurdle · 2m 7f 210y
#5
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#5
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 5.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C10.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-12 | Sligo | BHA97 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-24 | Kilbeggan | BHA99 | 0 | ||
| 2025-08-20 | Sligo | BHA97 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-07-25 | Kilbeggan | BHA100 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-06-06 | Clonmel | BHA103 | 14th | 14th | 0 |
| 2024-07-26 | Kilbeggan | BHA105 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 18
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength77%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 18. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/04/2024 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 40% | -0.13 |
| 17/05/2024 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |
| 02/06/2024 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 07/07/2024 | 8th | 8/1 | 58% | 46% | -0.12 |
| 26/07/2024 | 7th | 6/1 | 68% | 45% | -0.23 |
| 06/06/2025 | 14th | 25/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 25/07/2025 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 58% | -0.21 |
| 20/08/2025 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 91% | +0.25 |
| 12/05/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |