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15

Sallap

6yo Mare · 11-2 · OR 100

Roscommon · DNG Ivan Connaughton Handicap Hurdle · 2m 7f 210y

#10

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#10

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Made it 3 wins from her last 4 completed starts (set to win when falling at Thurles last October) when scoring at Limerick last month and far from disgraced when fifth in Galway handicap hurdle (3m, good) 2 days ago. Respected.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength25%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 8.1)

Highest class: BHA73
Recent avg: C8.6
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA87 @ Downpatrick 09/05/2025 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 87 · 2m5f180y Gd 155 · below its mark09/05/2025 · OR 87 par9/0587OR 87BHA84 @ Wexford 28/05/2025 · Pos 9th of 13 · OR 84 · 2m1f Gd 154 · below its mark28/05/2025 · OR 84 parBHA80 @ Ballinrobe 22/07/2025 · Pos 4th of 15 · OR 80 · 2m6f41y Gd 152 · below its mark22/07/2025 · OR 80 par22/0780OR 80BHA77 @ Wexford 29/08/2025 · Pos 12th of 14 · OR 77 · 2m4f100y Goo 147 · below its mark29/08/2025 · OR 77 parBHA73 @ Clonmel 02/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR 73 · 2m6f170y Yie 141 · beat its mark02/10/2025 · OR 73 par2/1073OR 73BHA85 @ Cork 10/05/2026 · Pos 14th of 21 · OR 85 · 3m80y Goo 153 · below its mark10/05/2026 · OR 85 parBHA84 @ Clonmel 05/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 15 · OR 84 · 2m6f90y Goo 152 · beat its mark05/06/2026 · OR 84 par5/0684OR 84BHA91 @ Limerick 02/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 18 · OR 91 · 2m6f120y Gd 159 · beat its mark02/07/2026 · OR 91 parBHA100 @ Galway 02/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 18 · OR 100 · 3m60y Goo 146 · below its mark02/08/2026 · OR 100 par2/08100OR 100projClass-projected finish: 4th of 18
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-02GalwayBHA1005th5th0
2026-07-02LimerickBHA911st1st0
2026-06-05ClonmelBHA841st1st0
2026-05-10CorkBHA8514th14th0
2025-10-16ThurlesBHA830
2025-10-02ClonmelBHA731st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today9/0529/085/062/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 18
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength99%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 18.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
09/05/20259th50/10%20%+0.20
28/05/20259th33/10%33%+0.33
22/07/20254th22/10%79%+0.79
29/08/202512th10/147%15%-0.32
02/10/20251st14/126%100%+0.74
10/05/202614th20/10%35%+0.35
05/06/20261st12/137%100%+0.63
02/07/20261st15/261%100%+0.39
02/08/20265th8/158%76%+0.19