13
She'll Be Kept
6yo Mare · 11-3 · OR 101
Roscommon · DNG Ivan Connaughton Handicap Hurdle · 2m 7f 210y
#9
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength13%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 7.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C9.2
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-21 | Ballinrobe | BHA90 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-02 | Limerick | BHA91 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-28 | Limerick | BHA92 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2025-07-11 | Cork | BHA98 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2025-06-10 | Sligo | BHA98 | 0 | ||
| 2025-05-30 | Tramore | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 18
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength79%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 18.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/12/2024 | 13th | 250/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 28/01/2025 | 2nd | 125/1 | 0% | 90% | +0.90 |
| 20/04/2025 | 7th | 28/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 09/05/2025 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 30/05/2025 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 78% | -0.06 |
| 11/07/2025 | 11th | 18/1 | 5% | 38% | +0.32 |
| 28/05/2026 | 10th | 12/1 | 37% | 47% | +0.10 |
| 02/07/2026 | 6th | 50/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |
| 21/07/2026 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |