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18

Smackwater Jack

12yo Gelding · 10-12 · OR 96

Roscommon · DNG Ivan Connaughton Handicap Hurdle · 2m 7f 210y

#6

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#6

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Returned to form to win 13-runner handicap at Punchestown (3m) in July and posted solid placed efforts since, latest when good 8 lengths second of 16 to She'll Be Kept in handicap hurdle at Ballinrobe (2¾m, good, 14/1) 14 days ago. This looks tougher, however. RESERVE.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C8.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA95 @ Limerick 27/12/2025 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 95 · 2m6f120y Sft 144 · below its mark27/12/2025 · OR 95 par27/1295OR 95BHA92 @ Navan 17/01/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 92 · 3m Sft 162 · below its mark17/01/2026 · OR 92 parBHA88 @ Fairyhouse 21/02/2026 · Pos 7th of 13 · OR 88 · 2m7f165y Hvy 144 · below its mark21/02/2026 · OR 88 par21/0288OR 88BHA85 @ Limerick 12/03/2026 · Pos 10th of 16 · OR 85 · 2m6f170y Hvy 153 · below its mark12/03/2026 · OR 85 parBHA92 @ Punchestown 02/05/2026 · Pos 12th of 22 · OR 92 · 2m Yie 171 · below its mark02/05/2026 · OR 92 par2/0592OR 92BHA85 @ Punchestown 13/05/2026 · Pos 9th of 18 · OR 85 · 3m Goo 153 · below its mark13/05/2026 · OR 85 parBHA81 @ Punchestown 07/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR 81 · 2m7f116y Goo 140 · beat its mark07/06/2026 · OR 81 par7/0681OR 81BHA96 @ Kilbeggan 15/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR 96 · 3m100y Gd 165 · below its mark15/06/2026 · OR 96 parBHA96 @ Ballinrobe 21/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 16 · OR 96 · 2m6f41y Gd 165 · below its mark21/07/2026 · OR 96 par21/0796OR 96projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 18
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-21BallinrobeBHA962nd2nd0
2026-06-15KilbegganBHA963rd3rd0
2026-06-07PunchestownBHA811st1st0
2026-05-13PunchestownBHA859th9th0
2026-05-02PunchestownBHA9212th12th0
2026-03-12LimerickBHA8510th10th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today27/1212/037/0621/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 18
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 18. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
27/12/20255th6/168%64%-0.05
17/01/20264th8/158%73%+0.15
21/02/20267th12/137%50%+0.13
12/03/202610th12/137%40%+0.03
02/05/202612th28/10%48%+0.48
13/05/20269th14/126%53%+0.27
07/06/20261st22/10%100%+1.00
15/06/20263rd8/158%85%+0.27
21/07/20262nd14/126%93%+0.67