3
Killeemore Lad
8yo Gelding · 11-12
Roscommon · J.F. Hanley Groundscare Beginners Chase · 2m 142y
#2
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
10%
Place Prob
24%
Rank
#2
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength25%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 5.7)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-22 | Wexford | ? | 0 | ||
| 2024-07-07 | Limerick | BHA78 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2024-06-12 | Limerick | BHA69 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2024-06-02 | Listowel | BHA67 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2024-05-02 | Punchestown | BHA113 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2024-04-23 | Tipperary | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/09/2023 | 10th | 18/1 | 5% | 25% | +0.20 |
| 05/10/2023 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 83% | +0.83 |
| 31/10/2023 | 13th | 22/1 | 0% | 37% | +0.37 |
| 04/04/2024 | 8th | 66/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 23/04/2024 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 88% | +0.40 |
| 02/05/2024 | 2nd | 50/1 | 0% | 96% | +0.96 |
| 02/06/2024 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 92% | +0.15 |
| 12/06/2024 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 07/07/2024 | 8th | 11/4 | 86% | 36% | -0.49 |