4

Orkneys Jack

7yo Gelding · 11-12

Roscommon · J.F. Hanley Groundscare Beginners Chase · 2m 142y

#6

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#6

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

No impact in a trio of hurdle starts last year but won a point in May and showed much more than previously under Rules when third of 12 in novice chase at Kilbeggan (2½m) in June. Below that level at same course since nut respected nonetheless.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 7.0 /10 (raw 7.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Naas 03/04/2025 · Pos 10th of 19 · OR - · 2m Goo 1663/04C8C8 @ Kilbeggan 01/06/2025 · Pos 10th of 16 · OR - · 2m4f Goo 1661/06C8C0 @ Kilbeggan 15/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR - · 2m4f Goo 16615/06C?C0 @ Kilbeggan 10/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR - · 3m1f80y Goo 16610/07C?projClass-projected finish: 6th of 7
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-10Kilbeggan?5th5th0
2026-06-15Kilbeggan?3rd3rd0
2025-06-01Kilbeggan?10th10th0
2025-04-13Tramore?0
2025-04-03Naas?10th10th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today3/041/0615/0610/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 7
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength36%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 7. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
03/04/202510th300/10%50%+0.50
01/06/202510th125/10%40%+0.40
15/06/20263rd80/10%82%+0.82
10/07/20265th8/158%20%-0.38