12
Ballyredinkingston
6yo Gelding · 10-11 · OR 78
Roscommon · Kepak Handicap Chase (0-100) · 2m 5f 141y
#17
Rank
Odds
17/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#17
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 9.6 /10 (raw 7.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.2
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-02 | Limerick | BHA80 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-15 | Kilbeggan | BHA81 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-03-26 | Clonmel | BHA81 | 0 | ||
| 2026-03-04 | Naas | BHA84 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2025-12-15 | Naas | BHA86 | 15th | 15th | 0 |
| 2025-12-02 | Clonmel | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 19
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength82%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 11th of 19. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/05/2025 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 63% | -0.20 |
| 31/07/2025 | 15th | 125/1 | 0% | 7% | +0.07 |
| 06/10/2025 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 23/10/2025 | 4th | 50/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 02/12/2025 | 10th | 125/1 | 0% | 47% | +0.47 |
| 15/12/2025 | 15th | 20/1 | 0% | 7% | +0.07 |
| 04/03/2026 | 11th | 28/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 15/06/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 64% | +0.27 |
| 02/07/2026 | 6th | 17/2 | 55% | 71% | +0.15 |