18
Charlie's Gift
6yo Gelding · 11-8 · OR 89
Roscommon · Kepak Handicap Chase (0-100) · 2m 5f 141y
#19
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#19
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength13%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 7.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C9.2
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-15 | Kilbeggan | BHA91 | 0 | ||
| 2026-05-28 | Limerick | BHA93 | 0 | ||
| 2026-05-14 | Clonmel | BHA94 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-10-02 | Clonmel | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-08-08 | Wexford | BHA98 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-07-11 | Kilbeggan | BHA100 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 19
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength100%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 12th of 19.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/04/2025 | 14th | 300/1 | 0% | 19% | +0.19 |
| 24/04/2025 | 7th | 250/1 | 0% | 54% | +0.54 |
| 16/05/2025 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 11/07/2025 | 3rd | 40/1 | 0% | 82% | +0.82 |
| 08/08/2025 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 42% | +0.15 |
| 02/10/2025 | 7th | 22/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 14/05/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 60% | +0.34 |