1
Full Noise
10yo Gelding · 11-12 · OR 93
Roscommon · Kepak Handicap Chase (0-100) · 2m 5f 141y
#4
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#4
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength25%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 7.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C9.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-07-07 | Sligo | BHA105 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2024-02-11 | Navan | BHA102 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2023-10-06 | Downpatrick | BHA95 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2023-09-01 | Wexford | BHA97 | 0 | ||
| 2023-08-20 | Tramore | BHA98 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2023-05-25 | Limerick | BHA98 | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 19
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength82%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 19. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/01/2022 | 2nd | 1/3 | 98% | 92% | -0.07 |
| 17/04/2022 | 16th | 28/1 | 0% | 35% | +0.35 |
| 05/05/2022 | 12th | 9/2 | 76% | 31% | -0.45 |
| 02/03/2023 | 10th | 7/2 | 82% | 31% | -0.51 |
| 05/05/2023 | 1st | 4/5 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 20/08/2023 | 7th | 18/1 | 5% | 40% | +0.35 |
| 06/10/2023 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 63% | +0.36 |
| 11/02/2024 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 93% | +0.40 |
| 07/07/2024 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 33% | -0.35 |