15
Johnny M
8yo Gelding · 10-6 · OR 73
Roscommon · Kepak Handicap Chase (0-100) · 2m 5f 141y
#14
Rank
Odds
40/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#14
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 11.0 /10 (raw 8.9)
Highest class: BHA75
Recent avg: C8.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-17 | Killarney | BHA75 | 0 | ||
| 2026-06-09 | Sligo | BHA78 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-05-13 | Punchestown | BHA79 | 14th | 14th | 0 |
| 2024-08-28 | Bellewstown | BHA87 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2024-08-12 | Ballinrobe | BHA91 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2024-07-26 | Kilbeggan | BHA93 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish18th of 19
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 18th of 19. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/03/2023 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 12/05/2023 | 8th | 150/1 | 0% | 53% | +0.53 |
| 05/06/2023 | 3rd | 80/1 | 0% | 88% | +0.88 |
| 21/06/2023 | 3rd | 11/1 | 42% | 80% | +0.38 |
| 26/07/2024 | 10th | 8/1 | 58% | 25% | -0.33 |
| 12/08/2024 | 7th | 17/2 | 55% | 14% | -0.41 |
| 28/08/2024 | 12th | 28/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 13/05/2026 | 14th | 20/1 | 0% | 24% | +0.24 |
| 09/06/2026 | 12th | 20/1 | 0% | 21% | +0.21 |