3
Jouster
7yo Gelding · 11-9 · OR 90
Roscommon · Kepak Handicap Chase (0-100) · 2m 5f 141y
#5
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#5
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength16%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 7.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C9.8
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-17 | Killarney | BHA93 | 0 | ||
| 2026-06-30 | Wexford | BHA95 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-08 | Roscommon | BHA97 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Tramore | BHA99 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-08 | Downpatrick | BHA100 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-24 | Kilbeggan | BHA105 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 19
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength51%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 19. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/10/2025 | 13th | 40/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 23/10/2025 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 31/10/2025 | 10th | 33/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 27/11/2025 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |
| 24/04/2026 | 11th | 33/1 | 0% | 23% | +0.23 |
| 08/05/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 67% | +0.40 |
| 30/05/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 80% | +0.09 |
| 08/06/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 80% | +0.06 |
| 30/06/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 69% | +0.43 |