16
Max Time
9yo Gelding · 10-5 · OR 72
Roscommon · Kepak Handicap Chase (0-100) · 2m 5f 141y
#18
Rank
Odds
50/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#18
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength13%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 8.3 /10 (raw 9.5)
Highest class: BHA72
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-16 | Killarney | BHA72 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-09 | Sligo | BHA72 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2026-05-21 | Limerick | BHA72 | 0 | ||
| 2026-05-13 | Punchestown | BHA72 | 0 | ||
| 2026-01-29 | Thurles | BHA72 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2025-08-11 | Ballinrobe | BHA72 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish17th of 19
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength68%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 17th of 19. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/10/2024 | 16th | 14/1 | 26% | 21% | -0.05 |
| 31/12/2024 | 11th | 22/1 | 0% | 41% | +0.41 |
| 11/04/2025 | 14th | 12/1 | 37% | 7% | -0.30 |
| 31/05/2025 | 11th | 20/1 | 0% | 41% | +0.41 |
| 01/07/2025 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 47% | +0.47 |
| 11/08/2025 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 29/01/2026 | 10th | 50/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 09/06/2026 | 13th | 80/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 16/07/2026 | 4th | 50/1 | 0% | 79% | +0.79 |