19
Not So Serious
5yo Gelding · 11-4 · OR 85
Roscommon · Kepak Handicap Chase (0-100) · 2m 5f 141y
#6
Rank
Odds
50/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 10.0 /10 (raw 9.3)
Highest class: BHA78
Recent avg: C8.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-21 | Ballinrobe | BHA78 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-10 | Kilbeggan | BHA80 | 0 | ||
| 2026-06-15 | Kilbeggan | BHA82 | 0 | ||
| 2026-05-29 | Tramore | BHA85 | 0 | ||
| 2026-05-15 | Kilbeggan | ? | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2025-11-22 | Punchestown | ? | 17th | 17th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 19
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength79%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 19. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08/2025 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 50% | -0.37 |
| 20/08/2025 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 57% | -0.30 |
| 08/11/2025 | 17th | 25/1 | 0% | 6% | +0.06 |
| 22/11/2025 | 17th | 150/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |
| 15/05/2026 | 12th | 9/1 | 53% | 27% | -0.26 |
| 21/07/2026 | 1st | 50/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |