14
Rideau Canal
11yo Gelding · 10-10 · OR 77
Roscommon · Kepak Handicap Chase (0-100) · 2m 5f 141y
#8
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength22%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 7.0 /10 (raw 7.2)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C7.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-08 | Roscommon | BHA79 | 0 | ||
| 2026-05-13 | Punchestown | BHA72 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2026-03-12 | Limerick | BHA79 | 0 | ||
| 2026-02-19 | Thurles | BHA72 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-01-15 | Fairyhouse | BHA72 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-12-11 | Punchestown | BHA72 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish14th of 19
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength22%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 14th of 19. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/03/2025 | 12th | 16/1 | 16% | 39% | +0.23 |
| 25/04/2025 | 11th | 20/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 07/06/2025 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 78% | +0.78 |
| 04/08/2025 | 15th | 12/1 | 37% | 18% | -0.19 |
| 13/11/2025 | 5th | 28/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |
| 11/12/2025 | 9th | 9/1 | 53% | 43% | -0.10 |
| 15/01/2026 | 5th | 28/1 | 0% | 73% | +0.73 |
| 19/02/2026 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 13/05/2026 | 13th | 10/1 | 47% | 29% | -0.18 |