17
Run For The Border
6yo Mare · 12-0 · OR 95
Roscommon · Kepak Handicap Chase (0-100) · 2m 5f 141y
#3
Rank
Odds
13/8
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#3
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength6%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-21 | Ballinrobe | BHA92 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-28 | Limerick | BHA92 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-12-29 | Limerick | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-11-18 | Limerick | BHA92 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-10-18 | Limerick | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-09-12 | Ballinrobe | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 19
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength100%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 19.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/08/2025 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 20/08/2025 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 29/08/2025 | 6th | 50/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 12/09/2025 | 7th | 80/1 | 0% | 54% | +0.54 |
| 18/10/2025 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 18/11/2025 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 43% | -0.33 |
| 29/12/2025 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 28/05/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 88% | +0.51 |
| 21/07/2026 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 93% | +0.01 |