9
Ballagh Star
8yo Gelding · 11-4 · OR 88
Roscommon · Campbell's Bar Ballinlough Handicap Chase (0-100) · 3m 1f 14y
#12
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength3%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 6.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.6
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | Sligo | BHA82 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-06-08 | Roscommon | BHA90 | 0 | ||
| 2026-05-13 | Punchestown | BHA83 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2025-11-04 | Fairyhouse | BHA91 | 0 | ||
| 2025-10-01 | Sligo | BHA87 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-09-12 | Ballinrobe | BHA84 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 19
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength56%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 12th of 19. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/05/2025 | 11th | 8/1 | 58% | 17% | -0.41 |
| 09/06/2025 | 4th | 22/1 | 0% | 77% | +0.77 |
| 01/07/2025 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 15/08/2025 | 9th | 16/1 | 16% | 38% | +0.23 |
| 22/08/2025 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 83% | +0.25 |
| 12/09/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 92% | +0.18 |
| 01/10/2025 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 13/05/2026 | 12th | 40/1 | 0% | 35% | +0.35 |
| 12/07/2026 | 9th | 14/1 | 26% | 43% | +0.17 |