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15

Captain Kate

7yo Mare · 10-2 · OR 72

Roscommon · Campbell's Bar Ballinlough Handicap Chase (0-100) · 3m 1f 14y

#19

Rank

Odds

33/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#19

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Without a win over hurdles and has failed to build on an encouraging chasing debut C&D sixth at in 3 subsequent starts in that sphere. Headgear change.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength13%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 6.8 /10 (raw 8.0)

Highest class: BHA72
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Fairyhouse 25/01/2025 · Pos 15th of 20 · OR - · 2m Sft 15925/01C8BHA75 @ Limerick 13/03/2025 · Pos 5th of 18 · OR 75 · 2m6f150y Yie 143 · below its mark13/03/2025 · OR 75 parBHA75 @ Down Royal 13/04/2025 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR 75 · 2m6f Gd 144 · below its mark13/04/2025 · OR 75 par13/0475OR 75BHA72 @ Wexford 28/05/2025 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 72 · 3m Gd 140 · below its mark28/05/2025 · OR 72 parBHA73 @ Tipperary 03/07/2025 · Pos 14th of 16 · OR 73 · 2m7f120y Goo 141 · below its mark03/07/2025 · OR 73 par3/0773OR 73BHA73 @ Wexford 24/07/2025 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR 73 · 3m Gd 142 · below its mark24/07/2025 · OR 73 parBHA72 @ Roscommon 05/08/2025 · Pos 6th of 16 · OR 72 · 3m1f10y Yie 141 · below its mark05/08/2025 · OR 72 par5/0872OR 72BHA72 @ Kilbeggan 22/08/2025 · Pos 6th of 13 · OR 72 · 3m1f180y Goo 147 · below its mark22/08/2025 · OR 72 parBHA72 @ Wexford 22/07/2026 · Pos 9th of 15 · OR 72 · 3m155y Gd 140 · below its mark22/07/2026 · OR 72 par22/0772OR 72projClass-projected finish: 15th of 19
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-22WexfordBHA729th9th0
2026-07-02LimerickBHA720
2025-11-13PunchestownBHA720
2025-08-22KilbegganBHA726th6th0
2025-08-05RoscommonBHA726th6th0
2025-07-24WexfordBHA736th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today25/0128/055/0822/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish17th of 19
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength52%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 17th of 19. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
25/01/202515th250/10%26%+0.26
13/03/20255th4/179%76%-0.02
13/04/20257th8/158%40%-0.18
28/05/20252nd5/174%88%+0.14
03/07/202514th10/147%13%-0.34
24/07/20256th10/147%62%+0.14
05/08/20256th25/10%67%+0.67
22/08/20256th18/15%58%+0.53
22/07/20269th33/10%43%+0.43