2
Decimation
11yo Gelding · 11-13 · OR 97
Roscommon · Campbell's Bar Ballinlough Handicap Chase (0-100) · 3m 1f 14y
#5
Rank
Odds
22/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C9.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-12 | Limerick | BHA98 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-02-21 | Fairyhouse | BHA99 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-12-27 | Limerick | BHA97 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-11-21 | Fairyhouse | BHA96 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-10-05 | Killarney | BHA100 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2025-09-27 | Listowel | BHA103 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 19
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength26%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 19. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/09/2024 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 89% | +0.13 |
| 16/10/2024 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 55% | -0.24 |
| 27/08/2025 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 71% | +0.08 |
| 27/09/2025 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 55% | -0.03 |
| 05/10/2025 | 10th | 8/1 | 58% | 18% | -0.40 |
| 21/11/2025 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 75% | +0.09 |
| 27/12/2025 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 91% | +0.08 |
| 21/02/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 58% | +0.32 |
| 12/03/2026 | 11th | 22/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |