7
Difficult Decision
13yo Gelding · 11-8 · OR 92
Roscommon · Campbell's Bar Ballinlough Handicap Chase (0-100) · 3m 1f 14y
#7
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 5.2)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C9.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-06 | Punchestown | BHA92 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-08 | Downpatrick | BHA96 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-12 | Limerick | BHA100 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-03-04 | Naas | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-01-12 | Punchestown | BHA94 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-12-27 | Limerick | BHA104 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 19
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength71%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 19. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/12/2022 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 25/01/2023 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 71% | -0.05 |
| 11/12/2025 | 4th | 66/1 | 0% | 79% | +0.79 |
| 27/12/2025 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 55% | -0.22 |
| 12/01/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 60% | +0.44 |
| 04/03/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 40% | -0.18 |
| 12/03/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 08/05/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 70% | +0.54 |
| 06/06/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 73% | +0.47 |