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5

Il Silenzio

9yo Gelding · 11-9 · OR 93

Roscommon · Campbell's Bar Ballinlough Handicap Chase (0-100) · 3m 1f 14y

#1

Rank

Odds

9/1

Win Prob

99%

Place Prob

83%

Rank

#1

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Improved in refitted cheekpieces when readily taking this 12 months ago. First run since when a good fourth of 16 in handicap chase at Punchestown (25f, good) in June. Remains unexposed over fences and merits serious consideration.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength25%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 7.9)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Punchestown 15/01/2023 · Pos 18th of 22 · OR - · 2m Hvy 16615/01C8C8 @ Naas 11/02/2023 · Pos 8th of 23 · OR - · 2m3f Yie 166C8 @ Kilbeggan 21/07/2023 · Pos 12th of 16 · OR - · 2m2f Goo 15821/07C8BHA94 @ Ballinrobe 14/08/2023 · Pos 14th of 16 · OR 94 · 2m143y Goo 167 · below its mark14/08/2023 · OR 94 parBHA91 @ Punchestown 08/06/2024 · Pos 7th of 17 · OR 91 · 2m3f100y Goo 164 · below its mark08/06/2024 · OR 91 par8/0691OR 91BHA91 @ Downpatrick 11/10/2024 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 91 · 2m5f180y Goo 164 · below its mark11/10/2024 · OR 91 parBHA87 @ Roscommon 09/06/2025 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR 87 · 3m1f24y Goo 159 · below its mark09/06/2025 · OR 87 par9/0687OR 87BHA87 @ Roscommon 05/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 16 · OR 87 · 3m1f10y Yie 156 · beat its mark05/08/2025 · OR 87 parBHA93 @ Punchestown 06/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 16 · OR 93 · 3m157y Goo 149 · below its mark06/06/2026 · OR 93 par6/0693OR 93projClass-projected finish: 1st of 19
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-06PunchestownBHA934th4th0
2025-08-05RoscommonBHA871st1st0
2025-07-01TipperaryBHA870
2025-06-09RoscommonBHA873rd3rd0
2024-11-01Down RoyalBHA900
2024-10-11DownpatrickBHA914th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today15/0114/089/066/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 19
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength96%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 19. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
15/01/202318th40/10%19%+0.19
11/02/20238th125/10%68%+0.68
21/07/202312th13/266%27%-0.39
14/08/202314th12/137%13%-0.24
08/06/20247th11/142%63%+0.20
11/10/20244th12/137%73%+0.36
09/06/20253rd12/137%85%+0.48
05/08/20251st11/142%100%+0.58
06/06/20264th9/153%80%+0.27