8
John Storey
8yo Gelding · 11-8 · OR 92
Roscommon · Campbell's Bar Ballinlough Handicap Chase (0-100) · 3m 1f 14y
#13
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#13
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength13%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 7.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C9.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | Down Royal | BHA93 | 0 | ||
| 2026-03-29 | Downpatrick | BHA93 | 0 | ||
| 2026-01-26 | Punchestown | BHA93 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-12-11 | Punchestown | BHA95 | 0 | ||
| 2025-11-04 | Fairyhouse | BHA98 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-10-01 | Sligo | BHA97 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish16th of 19
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength44%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 16th of 19.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/01/2025 | 1st | 18/1 | 5% | 100% | +0.95 |
| 03/03/2025 | 7th | 13/2 | 66% | 60% | -0.06 |
| 06/04/2025 | 7th | 7/1 | 63% | 50% | -0.13 |
| 20/04/2025 | 11th | 16/1 | 16% | 47% | +0.32 |
| 05/08/2025 | 10th | 22/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 29/08/2025 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 53% | +0.38 |
| 01/10/2025 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 40% | +0.14 |
| 04/11/2025 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 58% | +0.58 |
| 26/01/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 75% | +0.22 |