1
Midnight Moonshine
7yo Gelding · 12-0 · OR 98
Roscommon · Campbell's Bar Ballinlough Handicap Chase (0-100) · 3m 1f 14y
#6
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 7.6 /10 (raw 5.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C10.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-22 | Wexford | BHA100 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Bellewstown | BHA105 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Tramore | BHA103 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-05-07 | Wexford | BHA105 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-03-31 | Limerick | BHA105 | 0 | ||
| 2025-11-27 | Thurles | BHA105 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 19
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength27%
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 9th of 19.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 19/09/2025 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 90% | +0.32 |
| 11/10/2025 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 82% | -0.02 |
| 01/11/2025 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 75% | +0.07 |
| 27/11/2025 | 3rd | 11/1 | 42% | 86% | +0.44 |
| 07/05/2026 | 10th | 17/2 | 55% | 18% | -0.37 |
| 30/05/2026 | 9th | 13/2 | 66% | 20% | -0.46 |
| 04/07/2026 | 11th | 22/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 22/07/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 71% | +0.56 |