19
Thewaybackhome
5yo Gelding · 11-5 · OR 89
Roscommon · Campbell's Bar Ballinlough Handicap Chase (0-100) · 3m 1f 14y
#3
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#3
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength5%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 6.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-10 | Kilbeggan | BHA87 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-05 | Clonmel | BHA88 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-14 | Clonmel | BHA88 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Punchestown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-02-04 | Punchestown | ? | 14th | 14th | 0 |
| 2026-01-22 | Gowran Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 19
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength100%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 19.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/01/2026 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 22/01/2026 | 7th | 125/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 04/02/2026 | 14th | 250/1 | 0% | 7% | +0.07 |
| 02/05/2026 | 5th | 50/1 | 0% | 81% | +0.81 |
| 14/05/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 87% | +0.60 |
| 05/06/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 79% | -0.06 |
| 10/07/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 93% | +0.17 |