3
Carillo
8yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 88
Thistledown · Race 1 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m
#5
Rank
Odds
10/3
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-25 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-21 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-05 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2025-09-23 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-07-02 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 10
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength51%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/09/2024 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 28/10/2024 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 71% | +0.11 |
| 25/11/2024 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 02/07/2025 | 7th | 15/2 | 61% | 0% | -0.61 |
| 23/09/2025 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 25% | -0.54 |
| 05/05/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |
| 21/05/2026 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 25/06/2026 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 15/07/2026 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 33% | -0.49 |