4
John's Rock
9yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 87
Thistledown · Race 1 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m
#3
Rank
Odds
11/10
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 2.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.2
Today:
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-16 | Mountaineer | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-07 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-11 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2026-04-07 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength79%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/01/2026 | 6th | 11/8 | 93% | 17% | -0.76 |
| 23/02/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 12/03/2026 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 67% | -0.23 |
| 07/04/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 02/05/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 11/05/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 24/06/2026 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 0% | -0.66 |
| 07/07/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 40% | -0.28 |
| 16/07/2026 | 3rd | 11/10 | 94% | 60% | -0.34 |