10
Patriarchal
5yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 95
Thistledown · Race 1 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m
#4
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-17 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-01 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-20 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-13 | Mountaineer | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-03-19 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 10
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▲
Strength70%
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 4th of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/01/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 83% | -0.04 |
| 05/02/2026 | 8th | 15/2 | 61% | 13% | -0.48 |
| 11/03/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |
| 19/03/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 13/04/2026 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 29% | -0.48 |
| 20/05/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 01/06/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 50% | -0.13 |
| 17/06/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 15/07/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |