5
St. Louie Louie
6yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 84
Thistledown · Race 1 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m
#9
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength11%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 3.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-20 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-22 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-26 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-05-05 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-03-25 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-03-08 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 10
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength32%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/01/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 83% | +0.18 |
| 23/01/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 43% | -0.10 |
| 04/02/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 67% | -0.10 |
| 08/03/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 40% | -0.36 |
| 25/03/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 75% | +0.28 |
| 05/05/2026 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 25% | -0.63 |
| 26/05/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 86% | +0.17 |
| 22/06/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 20/07/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 0% | -0.63 |