1
Strike Appeal
9yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 87
Thistledown · Race 1 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m
#2
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
38%
Place Prob
32%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 2.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.7
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-22 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-01 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-09-30 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-09-04 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-08-04 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 10
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▲
Strength71%
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 2nd of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/06/2025 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 60% | -0.11 |
| 21/06/2025 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |
| 03/07/2025 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 83% | -0.07 |
| 04/08/2025 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 0% | -0.61 |
| 04/09/2025 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 30/09/2025 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 01/06/2026 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 17% | -0.60 |
| 22/06/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 80% | +0.06 |
| 15/07/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |