1
Banana Pudding
5yo Mare · 8-7 · OR 77
Thistledown · Race 2 - Allowance · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
9%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength8%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.9
Today:
Class gap: -1.9
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-13 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-16 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
| 2026-05-27 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 7th | −2 |
| 2026-04-28 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-04-07 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 5th | 8th | −3 |
| 2026-03-16 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 10
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength17%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/10/2025 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 67% | -0.02 |
| 09/02/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 63% | -0.03 |
| 24/02/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 20% | -0.06 |
| 16/03/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |
| 07/04/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |
| 28/04/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 27/05/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 20% | +0.04 |
| 16/06/2026 | 3rd | 10/11 | 95% | 67% | -0.29 |
| 13/07/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |