3
Belle Bottoms
4yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 78
Thistledown · Race 2 - Allowance · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
46%
Place Prob
34%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength24%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.6 /10 (raw 2.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.9
Today:
Class gap: +0.1
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-13 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-22 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-11 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-22 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-11-24 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2025-10-29 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 10
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength72%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/08/2025 | 5th | 2/1 | 89% | 20% | -0.69 |
| 21/08/2025 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 02/10/2025 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |
| 29/10/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 89% | +0.10 |
| 24/11/2025 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 67% | -0.23 |
| 22/04/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 0% | -0.61 |
| 11/05/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 22/06/2026 | 3rd | 11/8 | 93% | 50% | -0.43 |
| 13/07/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 86% | +0.12 |