9
Country Promises
4yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 79
Thistledown · Race 2 - Allowance · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
19%
Place Prob
22%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength32%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.9 /10 (raw 2.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.9
Today:
Class gap: +0.1
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-17 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-01 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-07 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-04-23 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-06 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 10
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▼
Strength74%
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 2nd of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/11/2025 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 83% | +0.68 |
| 11/12/2025 | 1st | 8/11 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 23/12/2025 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 06/04/2026 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 25% | -0.63 |
| 23/04/2026 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 50% | -0.38 |
| 07/05/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 29% | +0.02 |
| 01/06/2026 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 17/06/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 83% | -0.02 |
| 15/07/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |