8
Hoof And Boots
3yo Filly · 8-3 · OR 77
Thistledown · Race 2 - Allowance · 6f
#8
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲2
Strength13%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: -2.1
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-17 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-02-21 | Laurel Park | ? | 4th | 8th | −4 |
| 2026-02-14 | Laurel Park | ? | 2nd | 6th | −4 |
| 2025-12-14 | Laurel Park | ? | 2nd | 6th | −4 |
| 2025-11-21 | Laurel Park | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 10
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength87%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09/2025 | 10th | 7/1 | 63% | 0% | -0.63 |
| 17/10/2025 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 78% | +0.20 |
| 21/11/2025 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 43% | +0.06 |
| 14/12/2025 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 83% | -0.07 |
| 14/02/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 83% | +0.04 |
| 21/02/2026 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 25% | -0.62 |
| 17/03/2026 | 1st | 1/2 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 09/04/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |