7
Midnight Wonder
6yo Mare · 8-7 · OR 86
Thistledown · Race 2 - Allowance · 6f
#7
Rank
Odds
15/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength13%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 3.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.6
Today:
Class gap: -0.6
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-11 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-21 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-01-06 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-10-29 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-10-02 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2025-09-12 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 10
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength1%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/06/2025 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |
| 14/07/2025 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 25/08/2025 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 50% | -0.37 |
| 12/09/2025 | 3rd | 4/5 | 96% | 50% | -0.46 |
| 02/10/2025 | 4th | 15/8 | 90% | 40% | -0.50 |
| 29/10/2025 | 8th | 9/4 | 88% | 22% | -0.66 |
| 06/01/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 71% | -0.05 |
| 21/05/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 40% | -0.36 |
| 11/06/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 0% | -0.61 |