2
Toastmaster
4yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 80
Thistledown · Race 2 - Allowance · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength33%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.2 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.9
Today:
Class gap: +0.1
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-13 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-12-16 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-11-24 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2025-11-04 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-10-15 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-09-24 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 10
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength72%
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 4th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/06/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 14/07/2025 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 75% | +0.12 |
| 04/08/2025 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 40% | -0.42 |
| 24/09/2025 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 40% | -0.42 |
| 15/10/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 04/11/2025 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 75% | +0.01 |
| 24/11/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 16/12/2025 | 1st | 5/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 13/07/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 57% | -0.24 |