5
Dreaming Of Audrey
8yo Mare · 8-7 · OR 78
Thistledown · Race 3 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m
#4
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 3.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-06 | Thistledown | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-25 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-07 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-08 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2026-03-04 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-02-19 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 6
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength19%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/11/2025 | 1st | 5/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 22/12/2025 | 4th | 1/7 | 99% | 25% | -0.74 |
| 14/01/2026 | 3rd | 5/4 | 93% | 71% | -0.22 |
| 19/02/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 71% | -0.08 |
| 04/03/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 08/04/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 67% | -0.19 |
| 07/05/2026 | 4th | 15/8 | 90% | 25% | -0.65 |
| 25/05/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 67% | -0.19 |
| 06/07/2026 | 8th | 7/1 | 63% | 0% | -0.63 |