3
Gracie Dance
6yo Mare · 8-7 · OR 82
Thistledown · Race 3 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m
#2
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
64%
Place Prob
50%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength25%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 3.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-09 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-16 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-03 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-25 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-06 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-04-20 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 6
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength76%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/02/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 43% | -0.10 |
| 04/03/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 17% | +0.01 |
| 31/03/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 20/04/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 06/05/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 25/05/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 03/06/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 16/06/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 09/07/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 71% | +0.24 |