4
Magically Vanished
5yo Mare · 8-7 · OR 70
Thistledown · Race 3 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m
#5
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-06 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-10-29 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-10-06 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-08-14 | Charles Town | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2025-07-19 | Charles Town | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 6
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength31%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/04/2025 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 24/05/2025 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 17% | -0.57 |
| 13/06/2025 | 2nd | 11/10 | 94% | 80% | -0.14 |
| 19/07/2025 | 4th | 6/4 | 92% | 57% | -0.35 |
| 14/08/2025 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 43% | -0.44 |
| 06/10/2025 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 29/10/2025 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 03/06/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 17% | +0.01 |
| 06/07/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |