Pounds In Town

4yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 80

Thistledown · Race 3 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▬

Strength51%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 4.1)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C5.8

Today:

Class gap: +0.7

Higher-class runs: 4

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-07-08	Thistledown	?	4th	2nd	+2	7.8
2026-05-18	Thistledown	?	3rd	1st	+2	8.8
2026-05-05	Thistledown	?	3rd	4th	−1	5.8
2026-04-20	Thistledown	?	6th	4th	+2	5.8
2026-03-30	Mahoning Valley	?	4th	2nd	+2	7.8
2026-03-13	Mahoning Valley	?	1st	2nd	−1	7.8

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish6th of 6

▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price

Trend▬

Strength0%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 6.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
01/01/2026	8th	10/1	47%	30%	-0.17
05/02/2026	1st	15/2	61%	100%	+0.39
20/02/2026	4th	6/5	94%	50%	-0.44
13/03/2026	1st	9/4	88%	100%	+0.12
30/03/2026	4th	10/3	82%	25%	-0.57
20/04/2026	6th	9/2	76%	17%	-0.60
05/05/2026	3rd	5/2	87%	50%	-0.37
18/05/2026	3rd	9/1	53%	67%	+0.14
08/07/2026	4th	20/1	0%	40%	+0.40