6
Cleatus
3yo Gelding · 8-7
Thistledown · Race 4 - Maiden Claiming · 5f 110y
#7
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼2
Strength64%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 6.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: +1.7
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
| 2026-04-28 | Thistledown | ? | 8th | 5th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 8
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▲
Strength42%
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 6th of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/04/2026 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 13% | -0.24 |
| 20/06/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 15/07/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 20% | -0.06 |