H F S Memories
3yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 33
Thistledown · Race 4 - Maiden Claiming · 5f 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
88%
Place Prob
66%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 4.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-29 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-02 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2026-05-13 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
| 2026-04-28 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2026-04-02 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/02/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 57% | -0.19 |
| 24/02/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 18/03/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |
| 02/04/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 56% | -0.05 |
| 28/04/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 63% | +0.26 |
| 13/05/2026 | 7th | 5/1 | 74% | 33% | -0.40 |
| 02/06/2026 | 6th | 9/4 | 88% | 38% | -0.51 |
| 29/06/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 60% | -0.27 |
| 15/07/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 60% | -0.27 |