2
Last Crafty
3yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 33
Thistledown · Race 4 - Maiden Claiming · 5f 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
11/4
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▼2
Strength80%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 7.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: +2.0
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-29 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Thistledown | ? | 8th | 5th | +3 |
| 2026-05-16 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-04-06 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 9th | 6th | +3 |
| 2026-02-01 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 10th | 7th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 8
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength73%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/02/2026 | 10th | 11/4 | 86% | 0% | -0.86 |
| 06/04/2026 | 9th | 9/1 | 53% | 11% | -0.42 |
| 16/05/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 03/06/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 13% | -0.14 |
| 29/06/2026 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 20% | -0.66 |