8
My Baby Bullet
4yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 44
Thistledown · Race 4 - Maiden Claiming · 5f 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
11%
Place Prob
23%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼1
Strength70%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 5.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: +1.4
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-29 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
| 2026-04-28 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-08-05 | Mountaineer | ? | 9th | 5th | +4 |
| 2025-06-10 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-04-02 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 8
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▬
Strength72%
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 2nd of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/02/2025 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 13/03/2025 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 26/03/2025 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 75% | -0.12 |
| 02/04/2025 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 10/06/2025 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 0% | -0.61 |
| 05/08/2025 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 28/04/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 16/05/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 29/06/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 80% | -0.07 |