Color Bearer
6yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 86
Thistledown · Race 5 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#7
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.6 /10 (raw 3.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-06 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-25 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-16 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-05-25 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
| 2026-05-02 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 1st | +3 |
| 2026-04-22 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 6th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/02/2026 | 10th | 16/1 | 16% | 10% | -0.06 |
| 23/03/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 30/03/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 80% | +0.43 |
| 22/04/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 67% | -0.21 |
| 02/05/2026 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 25/05/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 16/06/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 20% | -0.06 |
| 25/06/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 25% | -0.01 |
| 06/07/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 0% | -0.58 |