1
John Fitzgerald
4yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 72
Thistledown · Race 5 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
11/2
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength29%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-14 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-23 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-02 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-13 | Thistledown | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-11-13 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-10-10 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 9
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength48%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/08/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 80% | +0.06 |
| 25/08/2025 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 22/09/2025 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 67% | -0.07 |
| 10/10/2025 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 13/11/2025 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 13% | -0.35 |
| 13/05/2026 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 13% | -0.35 |
| 02/06/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 80% | +0.54 |
| 23/06/2026 | 7th | 7/1 | 63% | 0% | -0.63 |
| 14/07/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 67% | -0.04 |