Red Chili Pepper
5yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 76
Thistledown · Race 5 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
9%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 3.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-23 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-13 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-22 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
| 2025-09-30 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | -1th | +3 |
| 2025-08-11 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-07-17 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/12/2024 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 60% | -0.03 |
| 16/01/2025 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 25% | -0.28 |
| 10/06/2025 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 33% | -0.30 |
| 17/07/2025 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 86% | -0.02 |
| 11/08/2025 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 30/09/2025 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |
| 22/04/2026 | 7th | 7/1 | 63% | 0% | -0.63 |
| 13/05/2026 | 4th | 2/1 | 89% | 63% | -0.27 |
| 23/06/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 67% | -0.02 |