Roll On Big O
5yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 82
Thistledown · Race 5 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
5/4
Win Prob
9%
Place Prob
15%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 3.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-14 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-23 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-02 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-07 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-02-20 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2025-11-13 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/05/2025 | 1st | 4/7 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 30/06/2025 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 50% | -0.34 |
| 04/09/2025 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 0% | -0.84 |
| 13/11/2025 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 20/02/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 60% | -0.16 |
| 07/05/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 43% | -0.28 |
| 02/06/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 40% | -0.44 |
| 23/06/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 83% | -0.02 |
| 14/07/2026 | 4th | 5/4 | 93% | 57% | -0.36 |