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4

Saving Heart

4yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 93

Thistledown · Race 6 - Allowance · 6f

#5

Rank

Odds

11/8

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#5

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▲1
Strength14%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 4.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Oaklawn Park 15/02/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 62 · 1m110y Slo 124 · below its mark15/02/2026 · OR 62 par15/02C6OR 62C9 @ Oaklawn Park 07/03/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 71 · 6f Slo 124 · below its mark07/03/2026 · OR 71 parC9 @ Oaklawn Park 26/03/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 69 · 6f 124 · below its mark26/03/2026 · OR 69 par26/03C9OR 69C9 @ Oaklawn Park 12/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 66 · 6f 125 · beat its mark12/04/2026 · OR 66 parC8 @ Oaklawn Park 25/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 69 · 6f 125 · beat its mark25/04/2026 · OR 69 par25/04C8OR 69C5 @ Thistledown 16/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 79 · 5f110y Fas 119 · beat its mark16/05/2026 · OR 79 parC5 @ Thistledown 08/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 81 · 6f 119 · beat its mark08/06/2026 · OR 81 par8/06C5OR 81C5 @ Thistledown 29/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 89 · 5f110y 119 · beat its mark29/06/2026 · OR 89 parC5 @ Thistledown 21/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 90 · 6f Slo 119 · beat its mark21/07/2026 · OR 90 par21/07C5OR 90projClass-projected finish: 1st of 5
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-21Thistledown?2nd2nd0
2026-06-29Thistledown?2nd2nd0
2026-06-08Thistledown?2nd2nd0
2026-05-16Thistledown?3rd3rd0
2026-04-25Oaklawn Park?1st4th−3
2026-04-12Oaklawn Park?1st5th−4

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today15/0212/048/0621/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 5
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength93%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 5. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
15/02/20267th16/116%0%-0.16
07/03/20265th10/382%56%-0.27
26/03/20265th5/493%43%-0.51
12/04/20261st15/890%100%+0.10
25/04/20261st9/488%100%+0.12
16/05/20263rd10/382%75%-0.07
08/06/20262nd13/891%75%-0.16
29/06/20262nd10/382%80%-0.02
21/07/20262nd11/893%83%-0.09