5
Scrimper
5yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 92
Thistledown · Race 6 - Allowance · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength16%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-15 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-01 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-05-02 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-01 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-08-14 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2025-06-30 | Thistledown | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 5
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength3%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 5.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/11/2024 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 17% | -0.41 |
| 31/03/2025 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 14/05/2025 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 80% | +0.12 |
| 30/06/2025 | 7th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |
| 14/08/2025 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 01/04/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 80% | +0.27 |
| 02/05/2026 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 0% | -0.74 |
| 01/06/2026 | 1st | 4/5 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 15/06/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |