1
Vdaytothetenacious
5yo Horse · 8-7 · OR 94
Thistledown · Race 6 - Allowance · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
11/4
Win Prob
50%
Place Prob
49%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 3.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-06 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-15 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-25 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-12 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-12 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 5th | 7th | −2 |
| 2026-03-13 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 5
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength86%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 5.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/03/2025 | 1st | 1/4 | 99% | 100% | +0.01 |
| 27/11/2025 | 7th | 8/1 | 58% | 0% | -0.58 |
| 05/02/2026 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 38% | -0.39 |
| 13/03/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 12/04/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |
| 12/05/2026 | 2nd | 1/1 | 95% | 83% | -0.11 |
| 25/05/2026 | 1st | 8/13 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 15/06/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 60% | -0.28 |
| 06/07/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 83% | -0.02 |